摘要：理性建构和自发演化的制度变迁都无法保证好制度能够自我实施。通过理性的顶层设计而建构的先验的好制度可能激励不相容;自发秩序下演化而成的制度虽可满足激励约束,但是却容易陷入坏的制度均衡。中国改革年代的一场重要的制度变迁——1994年分税制改革——提供了可自我实施的好制度的变迁范例。理性建构和自发秩序的互补保证了分税制改革的成功:在短期,理性的顶层设计在提高“两个比重”和服务市场经济的目标下,始终关注新制度对博弈各方的激励相容;在长期,地方竞争催动制度自发演化对既有的分税制安排加以补充,满足了激励约束的动态连续性要求。作为两种具有互补性的制度变迁路径,理性建构和自发秩序共同推动了好的财税制度的自我实施。

关键词：央地关系；承诺不完全可信；激励相容

Title：On Rational Construction and Spontaneous Evolution of Self-enforced Fiscal Institutions:A Study on 1994’s Reform of Tax-sharing System and Its Long-term Influence

Abstract：Good institutions as the result of institutional change often cannot self-enforce, neither change comes from rational construction nor spontaneous evolution. On the one hand, rational top-level design can construct good institutions a priori, but sometimes they are incentive incompatible. On the other hand, the institutions coming from spontaneous evolution may be bad institutional equilibrium, even if they can satisfy the constraint of incentive compatibility. As an important institutional change after the year of 1978, the reform of tax-sharing system in 1994 provides a paradigm of change of good institutions which can be self-enforced. The rational construction and spontaneous evolution can match each other when they contribute to the success of reform of tax-sharing system. On the premise of fiscal security and market-augmenting, rational top-level design always focuses on incentive compatibility of game players in the short-term. And spontaneous evolution complements formal arrangement of tax-sharing system in the long-term. The latter is the result of competition between local governments which can satisfy incentive compatibility constraints further. As two kinds of complementary paths of institutional change, rational construction and spontaneous order ensure self-enforcement of good institutions together.

Key Words：Central-local Relationship；Incomplete Credible Commitment；Incentive Compatibility

摘要：“一带一路”沿线国家大多是自然资源禀赋充裕的发展中国家,但不一定是自然资源出口强度较高的国家。现有文献较少考虑自然资源出口强度对外国OFDI的影响。基于“一带一路”沿线国家自然资源出口与制度质量的特征事实,从理论上分析自然资源出口对外国OFDI的影响机理,并实证检验了“一带一路”沿线国家的自然资源出口和制度质量对中国OFDI的交互影响。研究发现,高度依赖自然资源出口的“一带一路”沿线国家不利于吸引中国OFDI,对中国OFDI存在显著的挤出效应;且这一挤出效应仅存在于亚洲国家中。制度质量较弱的“一带一路”沿线国家越能吸引中国OFDI,这一吸引效应仅发生在“一带一路”倡议提出之前。自然资源出口与制度质量对中国在“一带一路” OFDI存在替代效应。

关键词： 自然资源出口；制度质量；中国OFDI；“一带一路”

Title：Natural Resources Export Institutional Quality and China’s OFDI——Based on the Empirical Analysis of 52 OBOR Host Countries

Abstract：The majority of Countries in OBOR area are the developing countries with abundant natural resources. However, these countries are not necessarily ones with high natural resources export intensity. The existing literature mainly focuses on the relationship between natural resource endowment and foreign OFDI and less considers the impact of natural resource export intensity on foreign OFDI. Based on the characteristics of OBOR Countries in natural resource export and institution quality, it analyzes the impact mechanism of natural resources export on foreign OFDI then tests the interaction function of natural resources export and institution quality of OBOR countries on China’s OFDI. It find that the OBOR countries who highly depend on natural resources exports is not conducive to attracting China’s OFDI, and has a significant crowding-out effect on China’s OFDI. Moreover, this crowding-out effect only exists in Asian countries but has no impact in European countries. The OBOR countries with weaker institution quality have more attractive for Chinas OFDI. However, the attraction effect only occurs before the OBOR initiative was proposed. The institution quality of the host countries has no effect on China’s OFDI after the OBOR initiative was proposed. Natural resources export and institutional quality has substitution effect on China’s OFDI in OBOR area. In the OBOR countries who highly depend on natural resources export the ones with weaker institutional quality are more likely to attract China’s OFDI.

Key Words：Natural Resources Export；Institution Quality；China's OFDI；OBOR

摘要：本文利用2008～2018年我国213个地级以上城市的面板数据和空间杜宾模型分析了进口对技术创新效应的影响。主要得出以下三个结论:第一,工业产品进口贸易对技术创新具有促进作用,不论是本地效应还是邻里效应均是正向的。第二,技术创新的关键生产要素,即研发人力资本和研发资金资本投入在本地效应和邻里效应两方面均是正向影响,有助于技术创新的提升。第三,各城市经济发展水平对本地的技术创新具有促进作用,对周边地区技术创新存在抑制作用。基于实证分析结果,提出我国各地区应为工业产品进口的便利化提供适当的支持等政策建议。

关键词：进口；技术创新；本地效应；邻里效应

Title：The Effect of Industrial Import on China’s Technological Innovation: Impact Mechanism and Empirical Analysis

Abstract：This paper aims at interpreting the effects of imports on technology innovation through Dobbin model with the panel data of 213 prefecture and provincial level cities in China from 2008 to 2018. The following three conclusions are drawn: Firstly, the impact of industrial product import trade on technological innovation whether local effect or neighborhood effectis positive. Secondly, the dominant factors of technological innovation, namely R&D human capital and investment have a positive impact on both local effect and neighborhood effect, which improves technological innovation in local cities. Thirdly, the level of economic development of local cities promotes local technological innovation but curb the technology innovation in neighbor cities. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper ends with policy implications to support industrial production import in terms of its efficiency and facilitation.

Key Words：Import Technological Innovation；Local Effect；Neighborhood Effect

摘要：实现财政公开、透明是国家提升治理能力和完善治理体系的重要体现,而资本有效配置又是要素市场化的重要体现。厘清财政透明与资本配置效率之间的内在逻辑,是促进政府职能转变,加速要素市场化进程,进而推动经济高质量发展的重要现实路径。基于不变规模报酬的柯布一道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数以及索洛残差法测算2013～2018年我国284个城市的资本错配指数,深入剖析财政透明度对资本配置效率的作用机制,进而通过空间杜宾模型实证研究资本错配的空间溢出效应,实证研究发现:(1)财政透明度有助于改善资本错配;(2)财政透明度对资本错配的改善效应具有显著的空间溢出效应。

关键词：财政透明度；资本配置效率；空间溢出效应

Title：Does Fiscal Transparency Improve the Efficiency of Capital Allocation? -Based on the Perspective of Spatial Overflow

Abstract：Achieving fiscal openness and transparency is an important embodiment of the country’s ability to improve governance and improve governance system while the effective allocation of capital is an important embodiment of the marketization of factors. Clarifying the internal logic between financial transparency and capital allocation efficiency is an important practical way to promote the transformation of govenment functions, accelerate the process of factor marketization, and then promote high-quality economic development. Based on the same scale reward Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function and Solow residual method to calculate 2013~2018 capital mismatch index of 284 cities in our country deeply analyzes the mechanism of action of fiscal transparencyon the capital allocation efficiency, then through empirical research on capital space doberman model mismatch of spatial spillover effect, the empirical study found that: (1)Financial transparency helps to improve capital mismatch. (2)The improvement effect of fiscal transparency on capital misallocation has a significant spatial spillover effect.

Key Words：Spatial Spillover；Effect of Fiscal Transparency；Capital Allocation Efficiency

摘要：实施增值税留抵退税政策是完善我国税收制度的重要环节,也是落实积极财政政策、着力稳定宏观经济大盘的关键举措之一。为此,笔者首先运用GTAP模型,评估了2022年我国增值税留抵退税政策的经济效应,其次,模拟分析了今后我国继续并扩大增值税留抵退税政策范围与规模的经济效应,得到以下结论:第一,2022年我国增值税留抵退税政策不但有利于促进我国经济增长,提高居民收入和消费及政府税收,还有助于促进投资,改善贸易条件。第二,本次增值税留抵退税政策可能导致我国建筑与房地产部门的产出下降,但有助于提高其余各部门产出水平;可能导致国内各部门的产品价格上涨与出口减少,并造成绝大多数部门的进口增加,使净出口减少。第三,若我国进一步扩大增值税留抵退税政策规模与范围,则GDP、政府和居民收入、投资与消费、贸易条件等主要宏观经济指标都将得到进一步的提高与改善,但会进一步推高国内物价水平。

关键词：增值税留抵退税政策；经济效应；GTAP模型

Title：Theoretical Model and Empirical Test ofthe Economic Effect of China's VAT Rebate Policy

Abstract： The implementation of VAT rebate is an important link to improve China’s tax system, as well as one of the key measures to implement positive financial policies for striving to stabilize the macroeconomic market. Therefore, GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze the impact of China’s VAT rebate policy on its domestic economy in 2022, then the influences of China’s VAT rebate policy on the domestic economy is simulated in the future. The following conclusions are drawn: First, this VAT allowance and rebate policyis not only conducive to promoting China’s economic growth, increasing residents income, consumption and government taxes, but also conducive to promoting investment and improving the terms of trade. Second, this VAT rebate may lead to a decline in the output of China’s construction and real estate sector, but it will help improve the output of other departments; It may lead to the increase of product prices and decrease of exports in various domestic sectors, and increase of imports in most sectors thus reducing net exports. Third, if China expand the scale and scope of VAT rebate, Chinas macro-economic indicators such as GDP, government and residents’ income, investment and consumption, and terms of trade may be further improved meanwhile China’s prices may be further increased.

Key Words：VAT Rebate；Economic Effect；GTAP Model

摘要：政府监管资源投入不足往往被视作食品安全事件屡禁不止的重要原因,但本文发现,更深层次的原因在于中国食品安全监管未能充分发挥声誉机制的激励约束作用。首先,本文基于KMRW声誉模型的理论分析表明:有效的食品安全监管必须使生产者受到声誉机制的激励与约束。其次,不同监管方式能够发挥声誉机制的效果不同,同时,监管效果与市场结构有关:在寡头市场结构下,“监管”能够达到与“监管+认证”类似的监管效果;但在垄断竞争市场结构下,“监管”无法将生产者置于声誉约束之下,监管效果微乎其微,而“监管+认证”则依然能发挥声誉机制的作用。最后,针对中国现实更接近于垄断竞争的市场结构,本文提出了将监管资源向认证食品倾斜等政策建议。

关键词：食品安全；认证；声誉机制；市场结构

Title：Food Safety Regulation Efficiency: A Comparison of  “Regulation” and “Regulation+Certification”

Abstract：Insufficient government regulation is often regarded as an important reason for repeated prohibitions on food safety incidents. However this paper find that the decper reason lies in the fact that the food safety regulation fails to give fulplay to the incentive and restraint role of the reputation mechanism. First of all, the theoretical analysis based on the KMRW reputation model shows that effective food safety regulation must enable producers to be motivated and restricted by reputation mechanisms. Second, the effect of the mechanism is different in different regulatory methods, and the effect is related to the market structure. Under an oligopoly mar ket structure, “regulation” can achieve a regulatory effect similar to “regulation + certification”，but under a monopolistic competition market structure, “regulation” cannot place producers under reputation constraints, and the effect of regulation is minimal, while “regulation+certification” can still play the role of a reputation mechanism. Finally, in view of the market structure in which China’s reality is closer to monopolistic competition, this paper put forward policy recommendations such as shifting regulatory resources to certified food.

Key Words：Food Safety；Certification；Reputation Mechanism；Market Structure

摘要：本文以中组部18号文下发导致的官员独立董事强制辞职事件为准自然实验,根据公告手工搜集整理2013年10月至2015年10月期间的公司官员独立董事辞职数据,以2010～2019年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,运用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法考察官员独立董事辞职导致的政治关联变更对企业社会责任的影响。研究发现:官员独立董事辞职后,企业会更加积极地履行社会责任和环境责任。该影响在市场竞争激烈、政府干预较强的企业中更显著。进一步的研究表明,企业将履行社会责任作为政治关联的战略替代工具以提升企业价值和绿色创新。本文的研究结论从政策效果(企业社会责任)上为优化政企关系和促进企业可持续发展提供了有效证据。

关键词：政治关联变更；企业社会责任；企业价值；绿色创新

Title：Do the Change in Political Affiliation Improve Corporate Social Responsibility? --Evidence from the“Document No. 18”

Abstract：Based on the resignation of independent directors of officials caused by the issuance of Document No. 18 of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee this paper manually collects and sorts out the resignation data of independent directors of corporate officials from October 2013 to October 2015 according to the announcement, takes China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as the research sample, and uses the propensity score matching and double difference method to investigate the impact of the loss of political association on corporate social responsibility. The study finds that after the resignation of independent directors, enterprises will be more active in fulfilling their social and environmental responsibilities. The impact is more pronounced for enterprises in their industries with fierce market competition and strong government intervention in their regions. Further research shows that companies use social responsibility as a politically linked strategic alternative tool to enhance corporate value and green innovation. The conclusion provides an effective argument for optimizing the relationship between government and enterprises and promoting the sustainable development of enterprises from the perspective of policy effect (corporate social responsibility).

Key Words：Change of Political Affiliation；Corporate Social Responsibility；Corporate Value；Green Innovation